معلومات عن نيوزلندا بالانجليزي

تعبير تقرير برجراف فقرة برزنتيشن بحث موضوع ملخص جاهز باللغة الانجليزية  انشاء عبارات سهل بسيط قطعة معلومات عامة شاملة بسيطة مبسط نبذة عن الاقتصاد السكان جمل عن بلادي كلمة رحلة مقال جمهورية دولة حول  تكاليف المعيشه السياحة للطلاب عرض للصف السادس للصف الاول للصف الثاني للصف الثالث للصف الرابع للصف الخامس للصف السادس للصف السابع للصف الثامن للصف التاسع للصف العاشر  ابتدائي جمل  سهل وقصير معالم  موقع  تقرير عن تراث بالانجليزي ابي موضوع  ابراج خمس جمل قديما  أبرز المناطق السياحية مختصر حول الحياة والعادات والتقاليد فى  لمحة تعريفية بالانجلش تلخيص قصير كلمة تحدث  تقرير انجليزي عن اي دوله مقدمة خاتمة  information about   paragraph  presentation  location  my country uae كم عدد سكان  مدن  الوجهات العرب المسافرون نقاط الاهتمام مساحة تحدث جغرافية جغرافيا  عبارات شعر قصيدة مؤثر كلام قصير مترجم بالعربي  شكل عام موضوع مؤثر  كيف تكتب بالانجليزي اللغات الرسمية ديانة  اسماء مدن  المناطق الريفيه الشعب الجنس رئيس لغتها الرسمية قوانين موقع  الوطن عادات وتقاليد بحث علمي زيلندا الجديدة 

Macroeconomic and financial situation of New Zealand as of June 30, 2016

New Zealand has a good economic performance in mid-2016, despite the severe difficulties in its dairy sector, which accounts for 23.5% of exports. Current growth is driven by dynamic immigration (+68,000 net migrants in one year) and the construction sector. The weakness of short-term inflation does not seem worrying. On the other hand, medium and long-term vulnerabilities are still present both because of the sharp rise in real estate prices and because of the persistent weakness of national savings which leads to dependence on external financing.

Slow growth slowdown despite falling prices

that affects the primary sector

Growth in 2015 slowed to 2.5% (versus 3% in 2014) around its potential. The

first quarter marked the continuation of this trend with growth of 0.7%, year-over-year

at 2.4%.

Favorable factors supporting the activity are in particular development expenditures.

of Auckland and the post-earthquake reconstruction (Canterbury area) of 2010-2011 that

growth in the construction sector (+ 4.9% in Q1); the dynamism of immigration (+68,000 migrants

net in one year at the end of May 2016) which supports household consumption (+ 0.4% in Q1). In contrast, the

The short-term context remains marked by the fact that the price of raw materials is kept at a low level,

first place for dairy products1

, a major sector for export. After the peaks achieved in 2014, the

external demand fell due to slower Chinese growth. This situation has

accompanied by increased volatility in commodity markets and a sense of insecurity that has

had a negative impact on the business climate. The national cooperative Fonterra2

, 1st exporter

national, had to reduce volumes and purchase prices to maintain margins. Although strictly speaking

dairy products represent only 5% of GDP, they account for 23.5% of exports3 and it is estimated that

to 17% in total the sectors indirectly affected by the crisis in the dairy sector4

.

The level of the NZ dollar in 2015 mitigated the effects of the fall in export prices, but the rate

real exchange rate appreciated again in 2016. If the agricultural sector was quick to take

cost reduction, as long as they did not fully offset the shock5

. The

dairy farmers face a third season of negative cash flow due to uncovering prices

not their costs. The support of the banking sector is therefore essential. Receivables have risen sharply

1 The global kiwi dollar dairy price index has lost 47 pts since its peak in February 2014 (-40%).

2 National flagship representing 90% of domestic milk production, 20% of goods exports and 7% of GDP.

3 See SER Note of 29 January 2016: New Zealand's foreign trade in 2015.

4 According to the IMF and Business NZ.

5 Postponement of investments, less fodder, lower labor costs, reform cows (marketed for the purposes of

slaughtering), understanding of financial partners.

June 2014 © DG Trésor EMBASSY OF FRANCE IN XX

ECONOMIC SERVICE (REGIONAL)

2

(Outstanding loans to the dairy sector amount to NZD 40 billion) 6

, but banks continue to support the

farmers through cash loans while waiting for price improvements.

Driven by construction, tourism, less affected agricultural sectors7 and immigration, growth in

2016 should nevertheless be maintained at a pace close to that of 2015 according to the government (which anticipates

+ 2.6%) while the IMF was less optimistic in its April 2016 forecast (2%).

In the medium term, a rebound in dairy prices seems necessary for a further acceleration of growth.

The Ministry of Primary Industries, however, does not expect world prices to rise before the end of 2017.

On the other hand, the plateau and then the gradual decline in post-earthquake reconstruction expenditure should weigh

on the construction sector.

Monetary policy remains accommodative and supports the economy.

The government has chosen a strategy of progressive consolidation of public finances, the

planned budget surpluses as of 2016/17 and subsequent years to help reduce debt

however, a moderate amount2 (35% of GDP gross and 25% net, the objective being to

reduce net debt to 20% in 2020). The 2016/17 budget, deliberately "boring" according to the press,

shows no support for activity by the medium-term fiscal leverage, in a country characterized by

low taxation and a strong reluctance to public spending.

In contrast, the RBNZ's monetary policy continues to be accommodative. The Reserve Bank of

New Zealand gradually lowered its key rate, starting in June 2015, with adjustments

successive runs of -25 basis points in June, July, September, December, and March 2016, moving the OCR

from 3.25% to 2.25%. This method, which is reminiscent of that of the US Fed, has allowed a good

anticipation by markets and precise adjustments.

This trend is justified by inflation (nominal CPI) of only 0.3%, far from the target of

2% fixed by the central bank since 2012 (mid-point of a band of 1 to 3% 8

), in agreement with the

government. According to the central bank, the current situation could lead to a reduction

additional rates, which are anticipated by many observers. Inflation expectations have picked up,

but remain below 2% in the next 2 to 3 years. RBNZ expects to reach inflation target

beginning of 2018, with a rebound in 2016 thanks to the end of the impact of the drop in oil on

year-over-year.

No unconventional tools have been put in place since the global financial crisis, piloting

remaining efficient and the RBNZ retaining a margin of maneuver in a country where sovereign rates

are traditionally higher to attract external savings.

The paradox of productivity remains difficult to overcome

Despite an enviable ranking for quality of life and ease of doing business, New Zealand,

suffers from low per capita income, often called the productivity paradox.

6 Source Central Bank. It seems that first expropriations of farmers have started, but these cases are not

the object of great publicity

7 Numerous export niches (gold kiwis, Sauvignon Blanc grapes, Club apples ...) are little affected by the vagaries

cyclical. See ANZ Economic Outlook, December 2015.

8 The Policy Target Agreement between the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank of December 2012 sets the target

CPI inflation outcomes between 1 per cent and 3 per cent on average over

the medium term, with a focus on keeping future average inflation near the 2% target midpoint.

June 2014 © DG Trésor EMBASSY OF FRANCE IN XX

ECONOMIC SERVICE (REGIONAL)

Most observers and international institutions agree in attributing this situation to

essential to the geographical remoteness and narrowness of the New Zealand market, in addition to underinvestment

in the knowledge economy. Indeed, economies of scale seem difficult, and

certain buoyant sectors, such as tourism or construction, are not vectors of

significant productivity9

. Having already implemented many structural reforms, the Government of New Zealand

focus on support for innovation and research to strengthen the competitiveness of

IT sector and services.

are traditionally higher to attract external savings.

The real estate situation is the main vulnerability of the

New Zealand

New Zealand is characterized by its low national savings rate (almost zero rates) and the small

size of its non-banking financial sector. The four big banks (all group subsidiaries

Australia) provide the bulk of the direct financing of the economy. And, more broadly, the country continues

to be dependent on external financing.

Net investment liabilities were -65% of GDP in 2014, and improved due to higher deposits

and the payment of Canterbury Region post-earthquake insurance benefits (NIIP of -85% in

2009). The balance of payments deficit (permanent since 1973) and regular capital outflows

dividends paid to foreign groups may constitute a relative vulnerability in terms of

slowdown phase slowing incoming flows. The New Zealand government remains

however, skeptical of the IMF's proposals to introduce tax incentives to increase

private savings. Setting up the Kiwisaver retirement savings system is considered a success

even if savings are not mandatory (opt-out possible).

The main vulnerability remains the constitution of a real estate bubble in Auckland which concentrates a

third of the population of New Zealand. Population pressure and insufficient housing supply

the rise in real estate prices (+ 11.1% year-on-year in May 2016)

speculative investments attracted by a favorable tax regime. Thanks to lower rates, loans

mortgages increase in bank balance sheets (+ 8.2% of loans in one year in March 2016), as well as

Household indebtedness (equal to 160% of GDP). Central bank stress tests do not show

systemic banking risk10. A sharp correction in real estate prices could prevent

banks to play their role as the primary financier of the local economy, even if their existence is not

threatened, including in the worst case scenario11. In addition, the four banks represent only a limited share

the balance sheet of their Australian parent companies (10% for Westpac, for example). Only a real estate crisis

Australia and New Zealand seems likely to pose a risk to the industry.

banking.

The authorities have chosen as a major tool macro prudential measures taken by the central bank

since October 2013 (limitation of banks' lending capacity on certain risky loans12), and

9 See Boulhol & De Serres, "Have countries escape the curse of distance? Journal of Economic Geography, 2010.

10 According to the Reserve Bank; losses should be able to be absorbed by bank revenues and liquidity ratios are rather

high.

11 Scenario of a 4% drop in GDP, an increase in unemployment to 13%, a 40% fall in real estate prices and a 33% drop in real estate prices.

price of raw materials. The losses for the banks would be in the order of 2 to 18% of their profits, but without risk of instability

financial or institutional default.

12 The central bank has established a measure limiting to 10% of total mortgages mortgages loans with an LTV ratio (loan

on value of the good) higher than 80%.

strengthened in May 2015 and entered into force last November13. Since October 1, 2015, the

Government introduced tax provisions that impose more capital gains on divestitures

in the case of a short-term transaction14. All of these measures temporarily slowed down the

market, but prices resumed their growth in 2016. Real estate inflation has repercussions on

prices of cities near Auckland (Tauranga and Hamilton) and Wellington, and will certainly require

new policies for access to housing and mastery of the real estate market. The RBNZ and the Treasury study

new measures that could impose limits in terms of loan-to-disposable income ratio and target

foreign investors. These measures must be agreed between the two institutions before

the RBNZ can not implement them.

The situation in the real estate sector is also an important constraint for monetary policy: a

The RBNZ's reduction in the key interest rate (OCR) would accelerate price increases. A gradual stabilization him

give more flexibility to steer its rates for the benefit of the real economy.

Despite the large share of mortgages on bank balance sheets, the financial sector remains resilient.

The last stress test conducted by the central bank was conclusive, even though

assumptions were particularly severe.

New Zealand has increased its exports of meat, fruit and wine to France by

2015 (respectively € 14 million, € 5.9 million and € 3.5 million) to try to limit the impact of the fall in the price of milk.

This development is comparable to that observed vis-à-vis its other export markets. However,

despite the performance, the results are not sufficient to offset the significant losses related to

exports of dairy products (- € 29 million). In total, thanks to the better competitiveness of our own

products (dairy products and wines, ie + € 10 million and + € 4 million), the balance improved by € 37 million for France

to settle at -222 M €.

13 A personal contribution of at least 30% is required in the case of a real estate investment for foreigners, the previous limit is

10 to 15% off Auckland, a new asset class covering real estate investments is being

the need to impose additional own funds.

14 Purchase and resale of the property in a period of less than two years.