برزنتيشن عن العراق بالانجليزي

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The economic and financial situation of

Iraq

Economy impacted by prolonged decline in oil prices

gross.

1. An economy in transition that remains fueled by hydrocarbons.

Despite the increase in oil production (4.5 Mb / d in March 2016 against 3.3 Mb / d in March 2015) and

exports (3.3 Mb / d versus 2.7 Mb / d over the same period), lower prices per barrel of crude oil (28 USD

the barrel in March 2016 against 101 USD in March 2014) has a significant impact on public finances. The deficit

public accounts rose from USD 13.2 billion in 2014 (or 5.6% of GDP) to USD 23.3 billion in 2015

(ie 14.5% of GDP) and the current account deficit rose from USD 1.7 billion (0.8% of GDP) to 10.8

USD billion (or 6.4% of GDP) over this period.

The hydrocarbons sector accounts for 51.8% of GDP, 89% of government revenue and 84% of

exports of goods and services. This strategic sector, however, remains a poor source of employment (1%) and

its vulnerability to the volatility of world prices is now worrying the Iraqi authorities who come from

launch a reflection on diversification projects aimed at developing the productivity of the industry out of

hydrocarbons and national agriculture. The share in GDP of other major sectors of activity is

broken down as follows: agriculture: 9.7%; industry: 60%; services: 30%.

While it was -2.1% in 2014, the growth in volume of GDP is off again in 2015

(+ 2.4%) and is expected to be around 2.5% in 2016. At the same time, inflation has been

slightly lower in 2015 (1.4%) than in 2014 (2.2%) and oil

reached 3.4 million b / d in early 2016, a sharp increase compared to the same period in 2015 (3 million b / d).

2. A 2016 fiscal year marked by austerity.

The federal budget, adopted on December 16, 2015, is under the austerity banner with a total

receipts of USD 69.2 billion (compared to USD 80.65 billion in 2015) and expenditure of USD 89.7 billion (compared

102 billion USD in 2015), an announced deficit of 20.5 billion dollars (11.8% of GDP). Expenditure

Investments (USD 21.8 billion) show a sharp decline of 65% compared to the previous year (36

USD billion). Major expense items are not expected to change from the previous year

and correspond to the ministries considered as priorities (Oil, Defense, Interior and Electricity).

To make up for shortcomings in public finances, a plan to support the development of the private sector,

all segments, was presented by the Prime Minister in February 2015. Investors

foreigners are invited to enter into public-private partnerships, particularly in electricity generation and

The privatization of some state-owned and dilapidated companies is clearly under consideration.

The reconstruction of the country, combined with the stabilization of the areas

will be released from the grip of Daesh, exceed $ 600 billion.

1. Despite strong cyclical constraints, the potential of the Iraqi market remains interesting.

The results of the 9th National Development Plan (2010-2014) did not live up to expectations,

because of the sharp deterioration of the politico-security situation in 2014, and job creation

announced (3 million), as well as the reduction of the unemployment rate (officially 19%

but actually around 30% of the working population).

From 2016, efforts will be applied to major infrastructure projects, the oil industry, energy

(electricity), transport and security for around 70% of investment expenditure. In

To a lesser extent, agriculture, water, health and construction will also receive the attention of the authorities.

Iraqi.

The downward trend in crude oil prices adversely affects the strategic planning of the reconstruction of the

country but some experts expect a next rise in prices around 50 USD / barrel,

which would make it possible to finance the extraordinary expenses related to the fight against Daech and the reception of more than

two million displaced people.

2. Table of economic and financial indicators

2012 2013 2014 2015 (e)

Population (M of inhabitants) 33.64 34.78 35.87 36.98

GDP (MdUSD) 218,232.5 223.5 169.5

GDP per capita (USD) 6469 6685 6231 4583

Evolution of GDP (%) 13.3 6.6 - 2.1 2.4

Average inflation (%) 6.1 1.9 2.2 1.4

Share of hydrocarbons in GDP (%) 53.6 52.9 51.8 n.e.

Oil production (Mb / d) 2.95 2.98 3.31 3.45

Average price per barrel exported (USD) 106.7 102.2 97 50.1

Public account (% of GDP) 4.1 -5.8 - 5.6 -14.5

Government debt / GDP 33.8 31.9 38.9 66.1

Current Balance (MdUSD) 13.7 3.2 - 1.7 -10.8

Current balance / GDP 6.3% 1.4% -0.8% -6.4%

External debt (MdUSD) 60.3 59.2 61 58.8

Investment flows. Direct (MdUSD) 3,4 4,78 4,78 3

Sources: IMF - Beirut Regional Economic Service