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جاهز باللغة الانجليزية انشاء عبارات سهل بسيط
قطعة معلومات عامة شاملة بسيطة مبسط نبذة عن الاقتصاد السكان جمل عن بلادي كلمة رحلة
مقال جمهورية دولة حول تكاليف المعيشه السياحة
للطلاب عرض للصف السادس للصف الاول للصف الثاني للصف الثالث للصف الرابع للصف الخامس
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جغرافية جغرافيا عبارات شعر قصيدة مؤثر كلام
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الرسمية ديانة اسماء مدن المناطق الريفيه الشعب الجنس رئيس لغتها الرسمية
قوانين موقع الوطن عادات وتقاليد بحث علمي
Economic
and financial situation Tunisia (September 2017)
The
Tunisian economy presents, six years after the outbreak of the revolution, many
vulnerabilities that weigh on its growth. Strongly marked by the impact of the
2015 attacks, Tunisian growth should rebound to 2.3% in 2017. The budget
deficit is today a point of increased attention, just like that of the balance
of current transactions which generates strong pressure on the dinar. Chronic
fiscal deficit and sharp depreciation of the dinar fuel the public debt which
should reach 69% of GDP in 2017, against 39% in 2010. It becomes urgent, in a
difficult social context, to adopt and quickly implement the reforms identified
long-term, to boost growth to a desired level of 5% by 2020.
I.
Background: a degraded economic situation and weak indicators
sustainable
in the long run
1.
Moderate recovery of growth in 2017 after two years of crisis
The
Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) expects growth of 2.3% in 2017, thanks to the
recovery of
sectors
related to phosphate processing, tourism and a good growing season. This light
rebound
follows two years of soft growth (around 1%), a direct result of the three
attacks
occurred
in 2015 and a degraded social climate that has strongly affected the
performance of the industries
extractives
- first and foremost that of phosphates.
Since
the revolution, the country's economy has been burdened by a low level of investment
and a decline in
productivity
factors that affect the competitiveness of the country. The attractiveness of
the country is also affected by the
cumbersome
and unclear administrative procedures. Private activity also suffers from a
lack
of openness: barriers to carrying out many activities and administrative
burdens
generate
rent phenomena. The financial system is unable to finance
properly
the economy. Growth is also suffering from the development of the informal
economy.
Since
2011, Tunisian growth has been mainly supported by household consumption. The
low
levels of investment has strongly affected the potential growth of the country
that is
now
limited to about 2.5%, against the double before the revolution; all this in a
context where the
authorities
are having difficulty implementing reforms that have been identified for a long
time.
After
slowing for three consecutive years, inflation has been rising again since the
end of
the
end of 2017. At the end of August, inflation was 5.7% year-on-year, compared to
3.8% for the same period in 2016.
The
depreciation of the dinar, which has been accelerating for two years (-24%
against the euro) will strengthen this
trend
by generating imported inflation. This leads the Tunisians to feel a sharp
increase
of
the cost of living despite an overall increase in their purchasing power.
The
unemployment rate has stagnated since 2013 at around 15% of the active
population, with large disparities
(between
regions, sexes, age groups, levels of education), which they continue to
increase with the crisis. The
poverty
rate is still declining, estimated at 15% of the population in 2015, against
more than 20% in 2010
-
but with large disparities between the regions of the interior, where it
is around 30%, and the coastal areas (5%
in
Tunis).
2.
Twin deficits, which have risen sharply since 2011, stabilize at high
levels
The
current account deficit is a growing source of concern. He settled
at
around 9% of GDP in 2016 (as in 2015 and 2014). In the first half of 2017, the
current account deficit
increased
by more than 25% compared to the same period in 2016. The surplus of the
balance of
services
(slight recovery in the tourism sector), did not offset the strong increase in
trade
deficit - the depreciation of the dinar had little impact on the real sphere,
competitiveness
Tunisian
export products continue to erode; in the absence of local substitutes, the
consumption
is fond of imported products. In 2017, the current account deficit could reach
10%,
compared to less than 5% in 2010.
These
imbalances are largely responsible for the persistent tensions on the dinar,
which have
since
April 2017 (-16% against the euro, to 2.80 TND for one EUR). At the same time,
BCT
has little room for maneuver to intervene in the foreign exchange market, net
assets in
currencies
representing only 101 days of imports in mid-September 2017, against 118 at the
same
period
in 2016.
REGIONAL
ECONOMIC SERVICE
While
there has been some stabilization of the fiscal position in 2014 and 2015 (with
a
deficit
close to 5% all the same), the Tunisian budget strongly slipped in 2016,
reaching 5.9% of the GDP.
Far
from stabilizing, the payroll of the public service will continue to increase
while
already
accounts for almost 15% of GDP. For several years, public finances have been
constrained by
payroll
level and the government used the investment budget as a variable
adjustment.
The latter now represents less than 20% of the state budget.
The
slippage in public finances, as well as the delay in the implementation of the
reforms
structural
reforms, led to a reformulation of the commitments made by Tunisia with the
IMF, whose
budgetary
aid tranche, scheduled for September 2016, was finally paid in June 2017. The
Union
The
European Union and the World Bank also paid in the summer of 2017 budget
support
to
loosen the constraint on the country's reserves and on its ability to honor its
commitments.
The Tunisian government is heavily dependent on donors to meet its needs
financing
conditions, taking into account the financing conditions that Tunisia can
benefit from
as
well as the weak liquidity of the internal market.
The
evolution of the public debt is all the more worrying because it is used to
finance
Functionnary
costs. It is expected to reach 69% of GDP in 2017, compared with 40% in 2010 at
the level of
central
government - taking into account the underlying risks (guarantees granted by
the State, other
borrowing
by public companies, social accounts) this rate would reach 15 additional
points. The
Tunisian
public debt is still considered sustainable by the IMF. This is due in
particular to maturities
relatively
long, and at a low average interest rate, Tunisia is indebted to donors
on
favorable terms. However, a large part of this debt is denominated in
about
65%), which calls for increased vigilance, particularly in view of the pace at
which
depreciates
the dinar. At the end of 2016, the claims of the French State amounted to only
$ 1.2 billion, out of $ 24 billion.
Tunisia's
total outstandings, ie 5%.
II.
The national unity government set up in August 2016 must accelerate on
the
reform plan
The
national unity government of Youssef Chahed was invested in August 2016 with a
roadmap
clear:
accelerate the reform process with the objective of economic and social
recovery of the
country.
At the end of one year, although the observation appears contrasted, one can
put to its credit the entry into
force
of new investment legislation (although implementation still needs to be
confirmed
the
opening of certain service sectors). Youssef Chahed's government also engaged
the
restructuring
of the administration - early retirement plans and voluntary departure plan. By
Elsewhere,
he committed himself from spring 2017 to a serious fight against corruption.
Youssef
Chahed reshuffled his government in September 2017. In his speech to the
Assembly at the
vote
of confidence, he echoed the objectives of the IMF program to 2020: deficit
budget
at 3% of GDP, debt at 70%, payroll at 12.5%. To achieve these goals, the chief
The
government has also announced a comprehensive reform program. At the rank of
new announcements,
Youssef
Chahed spoke of an increased use of public-private partnerships to boost
investment and
Launch
of a major program for the development of desert regions.
In
addition to the consolidation of public finances and the reduction of the
payroll of the civil service,
the
priorities are many with the focus on improving the business climate and
attractiveness
of
the country: administrative reform and simplification of procedures,
improvement of logistics services
and
customs, tax reform, restructuring of public enterprises, reform of social
funds,
reform
of the system of financing the economy, reform of the system of compensation of
the products of
based.
The government must also continue and step up the fight against the shadow
economy and
corruption
and continue the work of territorial reform and decentralization.
Disclaimer
- The economic service endeavors to disseminate accurate and up-to-date
information, and will correct, in the
as
far as possible, the errors that will be reported to it. However, it can under
no circumstances be held responsible for the use and
the
interpretation of the information contained in this publication.
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